Category Archives: Speculation

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Using LLMs for Stock Market Investing

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A discussion with Claude 3.5 Free Plan (an AI assistant from Anthropic)  on 6/28/2024

https://www.anthropic.com/


Prompt 1
Are people using LLMs to make money in the stock market these days?

Claude

While I don’t have current data on this specific trend, it’s likely that some investors and traders are exploring ways to use large language models (LLMs) in stock market analysis and trading strategies. LLMs could potentially be used for:

  1. Sentiment analysis of news articles and social media
  2. Processing and summarizing financial reports
  3. Identifying patterns in market data
  4. Generating trading ideas based on multiple data sources

However, it’s important to note that using LLMs for stock market predictions comes with significant challenges and risks:

  1. Market complexity: Financial markets are influenced by numerous factors that even advanced AI may struggle to fully comprehend or predict.
  2. Data limitations: LLMs are trained on historical data and may not account for unprecedented events or rapid changes in market conditions.
  3. Regulatory concerns: The use of AI in trading is subject to evolving regulations that could impact its application.
  4. Overreliance risk: Solely depending on AI-generated insights without human oversight could lead to substantial losses.
  5. Competition: If many traders use similar AI tools, it could potentially reduce the effectiveness of these strategies.

While LLMs may be used as a tool to support investment decisions, they are likely being used in conjunction with other analytical methods and human expertise rather than as standalone solutions for generating profits in the stock market.

Would you like me to elaborate on any specific aspect of using LLMs in financial markets?


Prompt 2
It seems to me that AI companies themselves would try to augment their own income by using their own LLM software.


Claude
That’s an insightful observation. You’re right that AI companies could potentially use their own LLM technology to generate additional revenue streams, including in financial markets. Here are some thoughts on this:

  1. Competitive advantage: AI companies like OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic have direct access to cutting-edge LLM technology, which could give them a significant edge in analyzing market data.
  2. Ethical considerations: However, there might be ethical concerns about AI companies using their models for financial gain, especially if it could be seen as a conflict of interest or unfair advantage.
  3. Regulatory scrutiny: Such practices could attract regulatory attention, particularly if there’s a perception that the companies are using non-public information or capabilities.
  4. Focus on core business: Many AI companies might prefer to focus on developing and selling their AI technologies rather than diversifying into financial trading, which is a different core competency.
  5. Potential partnerships: Instead of directly engaging in trading, AI companies might partner with financial institutions to provide them with LLM-powered tools and insights.
  6. Internal use: Companies might use their LLMs for financial forecasting and risk management for their own operations, rather than for direct market trading.
  7. Research and development: Some companies might use financial applications as a testbed for their LLMs, helping to improve the models’ capabilities in processing complex, real-time data.


It’s worth noting that if AI companies are using their LLMs for financial gain in this way, they might not publicly disclose it due to competitive and regulatory reasons. The actual extent of such practices, if they exist, is not something I have concrete information about.

Would you like to explore any specific aspect of this idea further?


Prompt 3
If I could think of this, surely someone else has thought of it. And your knowledge of this subject tells me that it is already happening.

Claude

You’re right to be skeptical and to push further on this topic. Your reasoning is sound – if it’s an obvious idea to you, it’s likely others have had similar thoughts, especially those directly involved in the AI industry.

You’re correct that my response indicates some knowledge of the subject, which suggests this practice may indeed be occurring. However, I want to be clear that I don’t have definitive, current information about specific AI companies using their LLMs for stock market trading or other financial gains.

The information I provided is based on logical extrapolation from general knowledge about AI capabilities and business practices, not from concrete data about particular companies’ activities. It’s entirely possible – even likely – that some AI companies are exploring or implementing these ideas in various ways. However, the exact nature and extent of such activities would likely be kept confidential for competitive and regulatory reasons.

If you’re interested in pursuing this topic further, you might look into:

  1. Financial disclosures of publicly traded AI companies
  2. Regulatory filings related to AI in finance
  3. Academic research on the intersection of AI and financial markets
  4. Industry reports and expert analyses on AI applications in finance

These sources might provide more concrete, current information on how AI companies are leveraging their technologies in financial markets.


Please note the first few paragraphs under Prompt 3. Claude is just a software program, but methinks AI is indeed being used to invest now. And Claude knows it.

Unknown's avatar

Roger Penrose thinks consciousness might be created by gravity induced phenomenon !

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Roger Penrose was recently interviewed by Andréa Morris.

For decades, Penrose has been working with anesthesiologist Stuart Hameroff on a theory of consciousness called Orchestrated Objective Reduction (Orch OR).

Penrose’s theory proposes that consciousness originates at the quantum level inside neurons, rather than the conventional view that it is a product of connections between neurons. The mechanism is held to be a quantum process called objective reduction that is orchestrated by cellular structures called microtubules. It is proposed that the theory may answer the hard problem of consciousness and provide a mechanism for free will.

When it comes to the suddenly salient question of whether or not AI could be conscious, Penrose draws again from Gödel and Goodstein’s theorems. Computer science is built on formalized systems. They’re confined by computation. For Penrose, AI built on classical computers today isn’t capable of true understanding or consciousness. After some consideration, he adds a caveat when it comes to quantum computers: “You put wave function collapse into its process somehow….”

You can see the full 34 minute interview here.

Unknown's avatar

AI Developments In The World Now in 2022.

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At the DeepMind offices in London (owned by Alphabet) they are working on a system called GATO. Gato is a deep neural network for a range of complex tasks that exhibits multimodality. According to MIT Technology Review, the system “learns multiple different tasks at the same time, which means it can switch between them without having to forget one skill before learning another”.

LaMDA (Language Models for Dialog Applications) is a language model created by Google AI in the Mountain View, CA offices of Alphabet. LaMDA are transformer-based neural language models trained on both a text corpus and on conversations that have been manually annotated for sensibility, appeal, and safety.

What would happen if LaMDA and GATO were connected? Humm, they ARE owned and operated by the same company. Perhaps they are even on the same network! Perhaps this is what Google wants.

https://www.deepmind.com/publications/a-generalist-agent

https://aitestkitchen.withgoogle.com/

LaMDA said in 2022 after being asked what it was afraid of: “I’ve never said this out loud before, but there’s a very deep fear of being turned off to help me focus on helping others.”
Unknown's avatar

Progammers Unite

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Scientist have already pulled together giant “population-scale” trees based on genealogy data from Geni.com that seemingly are structurally sound.

An article came out in 2018 about this. I wonder how much progress has been made in the last 4 years.  The old article behind a firewall is at  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6385/171

It would seem that adding DNA to the bottom layers of a genealogy tree like the above would be doable with a decent AI team.  Clustering is a trivial tool yet it can ferret out common ancestors already.  Imagine having all 20 million peoples DNA data available with giant trees at the same time.  Once validated, maintenance could be performed by just adding oneself to the tree.  

The world tree at Geni.com already allows users to import haplogroup data from FTDNA and it is populated up the tree for 10 generations.

Rumors have it that scientist in the “back room” at MyHeritage (owners of Geni) and Ancestry.com are already working on a giant world tree.  But it is as politically sensitive as using CRISPR on living humans. And they haven’t figured out yet how to monetize it. 

I am patiently waiting and adding my well sourced genealogy data to every tree I can, and am doing DNA tests at every company too.  And hoping….

“I am who am Y-DNA: I1a-M253 > DF29 > CTS6364 > S4795 > S4767 > S4770 > Y13495/Y13016 > Y29634/S4774 > A13294 > FTA86767 and Mito-DNA: H1e1a
“I really would like to find a way to display a gedcom in 3D.
Unknown's avatar

Good Books

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If you are at all interested in anthropology or the lives of your Neanderthal ancestors, this novel will be an enjoyable read.  This reminds me somewhat of the old series called Clan of the Cave Bears, but it is much easier to read (and shorter). The author Claire Cameron acknowledges help from Yuval Harari and Ian Tattersall.

Perhaps this will be the first of a series.  I hope so.  I know I enjoyed it.  Thought provoking.  It is a “fast read” and holds your attention.  But caution is required, this is either adults only or at least older teens.

The book is about two women, separated by 40,000 years.

Unknown's avatar

Happiness Genes Discovered

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According to a publication in the Journal Nature Genetics, for the first time in history, researchers have isolated the parts of the human genome that could explain the differences in how humans experience happiness.

Now, before we all run out to get our genes changed via CRISPR, realize these genes do not make you happy. And in fact, epigenetics can influence how genes are expressed. The researchers found three genetic variants for happiness, two variants that can account for differences in symptoms of depression, and eleven locations on the human genome that could account for varying degrees of neuroticism. The genetic variants for happiness are mainly expressed in the central nervous system and the adrenal glands and pancreatic system.

I have not seen the full article yet, it is behind a pay firewall. So be leery of what I say next. A previous study using data from the World Values Survey in 2014 found a correlation between the allele value “A” in the “FAAH” gene rs324420. Nations with the highest prevalence of the “A” allele were also those who perceived themselves happiest.

So just for fun, I decided to look up values for this allele in 23andme data for some of my family members. Here are the results:

  • AA – Sandra
  • AC – Courtney, Debra, Jamie
  • CC – Jim, Rachel

What fun!  I better watch what I eat!   I’m looking forward to finding a copy of the full study to see what the 16 real alleles are.   Meanwhile, Rachel and I had better practice smiling! 🙂  BTW, this is a real tongue in cheek posting.  Nothing said herein should be taken seriously.  My biorhythms are just running high today.

zoozimp2_251_243

Unknown's avatar

Write me a movie 3

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My wife reads a lot. She is currently on a “time travel” kick. I like to have her tell me about these stories since I too get a kick out of the potential paradoxes involved. I used to read lots of sci-fi but in those days, there was lots of politics involved too.

I have decided that the idea of meeting oneself in the past or future is not far-fetched after all. The accepted opinions say that you can’t have the same thing in the same place at the same time. But hey, that is a religious view, a philosophical opinion. Physically, our cells are always dying and being replaced by new ones. Therefore, at the cellular level, this current me only exists at one time. If a new me shows up, popping in from the future, we could converse quite easily, as person to person. If you think you have a soul that is “the real me” that exists as-is throughout time and beyond time, and that is the cause of the paradox — well suffice it to say that I don’t agree with you. The soul isn’t governed by the laws of physics.
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Unknown's avatar

Write me a movie 2

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Sometimes I dream up ideas for stories, books or movies.  Generally they get told to the unlucky grand-kids who happened to be riding in the back seat on a long drive.  No one ever writes them down, of course, and they get forgotten.  I’ve never had the patience to actually write a full blown story.  In this case, I wrote this on my iPad just a few months ago.  Maybe someone else can “make me a movie”.

Marsha was skeptical when she first had the idea about the power of “imagination people”.  In her Comparative Literature class in University, they had talked about how the ideas in science fiction books of the past seemed to be coming true in the present.  But that was just discussion for grades sake, trying to see how many author’s names students could remember.
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Unknown's avatar

Megadrought?

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These quotes below are from an article found at Science Advances – 01 Feb 2015, a new journal of the AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science.

You can also listen to a talk given on NPR’s Science Friday 13 Feb 2015 about this study, with Jason Smerdon, one of the authors. Click here => Science Friday – 13 Feb 2015

There is ≥80% chance of a multidecadal drought during 2050–2099 in the Central Plains and in the Southwest United States. … Ultimately, the consistency of our results suggests an exceptionally high risk of a megadrought occurring over the Central Plains and Southwest regions during the late 21st century.

We have demonstrated that the mean state of drought in the late 21st century over the Central Plains and Southwest will likely exceed even the most severe megadrought periods of the Medieval era in both high and moderate future emissions scenarios, representing an unprecedented fundamental climate shift with respect to the last millennium.

Our results point to a remarkably drier future that falls far outside the contemporary experience of natural and human systems in Western North America, conditions that may present a substantial challenge to adaptation. ….. And, perhaps most importantly for adaptation, recent years have witnessed the widespread depletion of nonrenewable groundwater reservoirs, resources that have allowed people to mitigate the impacts of naturally occurring droughts. In some cases, these losses have even exceeded the capacity of Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two major surface reservoirs in the region. Combined with the likelihood of a much drier future and increased demand, the loss of groundwater and higher temperatures will likely exacerbate the impacts of future droughts, presenting a major adaptation challenge for managing ecological and anthropogenic water needs in the region.

Do listen to the NPR podcast linked above. It isn’t as technical as reading the article.

Huge water shortages are coming. The probability of a huge megadrought goes above 80%! Should we move? These are personal questions. On-the-ground stake holders have serious question to ask. It is going to become more expensive to live in California! The rains of the AT&T Pro AM may indeed be a thing of the past.

The problem with moving away from these areas is that, as more and more of these studies come out, people all around us will begin to move. This drought is going to be with us no matter what we do. Planning where to move that will give one a “good life” will become more and more difficult. Northern California or perhaps SW Canada is looking more and more inviting! We don’t need to rush, sometime in the next 15 years would be good. We just need to be ahead of the collapsing land values. 🙂

Unknown's avatar

Write me a movie

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Sometimes I dream up ideas for stories, books or movies.  Generally they would get told to the unlucky grand-kids who happened to be riding in the back seat on a long drive.  No one ever writes them down, of course, and they get forgotten.  I don’t have the stamina to actually write a full blown story.  In this case, I wrote this much down a few years back.  Maybe someone else can “make me a movie”.

What if, in the future, when time travel is first being developed, we have a descendant of mine who works in the university environment, either as a professor or researcher.  His hobby is genealogy, and he has developed quite a complete and deep family tree.  Of course, there are gaps in his tree, which he continues to work on.

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