Category Archives: Hobbies

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World Population Trends

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This info is from the 28 June 2019 issue of Science Magazine. I am not saying this is good nor bad, just publishing “only the facts, ma’am!”…

World Population to peak in 2100
Global population growth is predicted to stop – or even decrease – by 2100, topping out at some 10.9 billion people, according to a new United Nations report. The biggest cause: declining birth rates across both developed and developing nations. Right now, the global fertility rate is above 2.5 births per woman – well above the 2.1 births necessary to maintain the existing population. But by 2100, that number is expected to drop to 1.9, according to the report. Fewer births mean the world population is steadily getting older, putting increased pressure on health care, pension, and social welfare systems. The report predicts the global population will reach 9.7 billion people by 2050.

At first, this seems counter intuitive – how can population go up as fertility rate is dropping. The thing is, we are also living longer, the graph of which is not shown. The increasing volume of aging people is included in the numbers.

According to the current estimates, there are about 7,715,150,500 of us alive as I write this. The following chart shows the growth since I began to imagine!

Of course, the Climate Crisis or War or Plastic Pollution or Meteors or Aliens or Time-Travel or Worm-Holes might change those trend-lines. But then, what-if scenarios only tend to complicate forecasts. Like I said “only the facts, ma’am!”…

” The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” – Isacc Asimov

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Wanted: No War

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The longer other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, are not allowed to have nuclear energy, the longer they are dependent on oil!

As The Guardian said “The establishment assumes that Iran can never possess nuclear weapons, yet the United States lives with nuclear-armed adversaries like Russia and China and aligns with the nuclear-armed military dictatorship in Pakistan.”

The Climate Crisis almost demands that we enable the building of more nuclear power plants. We have learned from our mistakes how to build them safely now. We should offer to build nuclear facilities for any country that wants them! Especially Iran and North Korea.

But Big Oil, with their fossil fuels lobby, holds tremendous economic power and influence on politics, particularly in the United States. They continue to scare the public over anything nuclear.

We need to fear Climate Crisis more than War. Iran having the ability to build a nuclear warhead is not nearly as dangerous as Trump having control of the US arsenals.

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Gas powered cars are no longer practical

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The other day, Elon Musk posted a Twitter message that triggered thoughts about real life cars. See picture below.

Nowadays many people keep cars until they are 10 years or more older. And nowadays most cars sold are gas powered, the percentage for hybrid, electric and hydrogen powered are small.

The climate crisis scientists are now predicting that we only have 10-11 years to turn things around or we are doomed. People aren’t yet worried enough to change their habits.

But just think – if they are right, then imagine how little the gas powered car bought today will be worth in 10 years! It will be not only worthless, people will think negatively about anyone driving one. They will stone ya’ll, because eventually people will get mad when their quality of life declines.

Financially speaking, if you are going to buy a new car now, hybrid or electric is the only smart purchase. The price of gas and oil is just going to increase. And in 10 years, there might not be any available.

Thanks for the practical thinking, Elon.

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Climate Crisis: Time to Ration Meat and Flying

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The following excerpts are from an article in The Guardian today, written by Sonia Sodha, the chief leader writer at the Observer. Given the seriousness of the Climate Crisis, it is time that we get serious about how we are going to solve the problem. Rationing might seem “over the top” to those who are addicted to the meat of 4 legged animals and flying, but it is time to get serious..

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/01/sin-taxes-on-meat-or-flying-wont-change-a-climate-hypocrite-like-me-rationing-might/

“Rationing to tackle the climate crisis could be given a modern-day makeover. People could be allocated polluting credits to cover activities such as meat eating and flying that they can sell and buy in an online marketplace. If you’re short of cash, or not that bothered about eating meat or flying abroad, you can feel smug as you sell your credits to someone who is, which makes this far more equitable than green taxes. And setting a population-level limit on something such as meat consumption would create huge incentives for companies to invest more in the production of things such as environmentally friendly, lab-grown meat.”

and

“A decade on, it’s surely an idea whose time has come. The climate school strikes show the next generation is hungry for more radical action. Sure, the hypocrite-hunters will balk at the prospect of rationing to save the planet. But I’m optimistic that more of us will come to see that it’s going to take something more drastic than trying to persuade people to voluntarily scale back to whip us into shape.”

“A question cannot be answered until it is asked, and once asked, it cannot be unasked.” – Anthony Aguirre

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Trying to Find Canned Still Water

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Plastic is pilling up on our beaches, plastic is killing ocean animals, plastic is not biodegradable. So I decided to look for an alternative to plastic bottled still water that I can toss into the trunk, the bottom of a canoe, or wherever, without fearing breakage. (Yes, I have a glass jug for work, but it is heavy and breakable.).

Alas, the local stores don’t carry canned water unless it is sparkling or flavored! Don’t tell me it is because people won’t buy it — Amazon sells it! And many brands are European. It looks to me like USA Corporate companies (except Amazon) just aren’t worried about the planet.

So far, the Internet has helped me with some information.

CanO – resealable or ring pull, spring water, London

Pathwater. – reusable, plastic screw top

Open Water – aluminum screw top, MBAquarium approved

Liquid Death – mountain water ring pull (try Walmart)

Blue Can – reverse osmosis filtered water ring pull

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The Moral Machine

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Take a short 13 item “test” to see how you would program AI cars to choose between unavoidable scenarios involving who lives and who dies. There are no right or wrong responses. The quiz has been taken by 3-4 million people already from 233 countries. Your responses will be displayed as compared to the totals.

The current results have just been published in Nature Magazine 1 Nov 2018. Take the test here, go to bottom and “Start Judging”.

http://moralmachine.mit.edu/

Some items are tough… 5 old people in a car vs. 5 mixed age pedestrians. Some are easy… people vs. animals.

The research article itself is behind a pay wall at Nature.com. If you have a subscription, you can find it here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0637-6.

The applied results will be driving past your house soon. But the programming will be changeable. Help the programmer near you make ethical choices.

“Before you travel, do not forget to sit on your luggage in silence for a few minutes before leaving home.” – A Russian superstition

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Life 3.0

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If you’re interested in artificial intelligence (AI), I highly recommend that you read this new book Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark, a professor at MIT. His book is an easy read for the amateur and weighty enough for the AI students and professional. It explains (finally someone got it through to me) how neural networks work, how our mind learns and remembers and generally how machines can be built to mimic these processes. This is a realistic book, issues in the future are explained, not sidestepped. This is a science book that is not only important, but fun to read. I give it 5 stars!

 

“This is a conversation that everyone needs to join. But for them to join it constructively, we need to educate them about what the challenges and opportunities actually are. Otherwise it degenerates into the scaremongering that the British tabloids do. Ultimately, this is a very exciting opportunity. Everything I love about civilization is the product of intelligence. If we can create a beneficial superintelligence, we can help humanity flourish better than ever before.” — by Max Tegmark

“Worth reading Life 3.0 by @Tegmark. AI will be the best or worst thing ever for humanity, so let’s get it right.” — by Elon Musk in Twitter

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.” – by Bill Gates

“If there were no God, it would be necessary to invent him.” – so said Voltaire

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No Is Not Enough – the book

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The new book “No Is Not Enough” by Naomi Klein should be read by all. It was rushed out in reaction to Donald Trump, but includes important comments about climate change and the anthropocene.

Because one of the most unjust aspects of climate disruption is that our actions as adults today will have their most severe impact on the lives of generations yet to come, as well as kids alive today who are too young to impact policy — kids like Toma (her son) and his friends, and their generation the world over. These children have done nothing to create the crisis, but they are the ones who will deal with the most extreme weather — the storms and droughts and fires and rising seas — and all the social and economic stresses that will flow as a result. They are the ones growing up amidst a mass extinction, robbed of so much beauty and so much of the companionship that comes from being surrounded by other life forms.

The above quote from the book is how I feel about my grandchildren (aged 12-19). Global warming, climate change, neoliberalsim, the USA oligarchy, Trumpism, all of these things are not their fault. The adults of the “western world” have effed up society and the planet so bad that I feel revolution will be the only way out. And these kids will be fighting the wars, unless we can help wake people up to the dangers.

Get a copy of the book, buy it, library it, borrow it. And learn more at

noisnotenough.org

theleap.org

“I’m not looking to overthrow the American government, the corporate state already has..” – John Trudell

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Noam Chomsky Interviewed at Google

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Noam Chomsky appeared at Google in Cambridge May 23, 2017, to speak to an audience of primarily Google staff. The video of the “Google Talks” event was published to YouTube June 5.

This discussion seemed to be more personal than I have heard Chomsky before. Usually Professor Chomsky is “on topic” all the time. The interviewer did a great job, acting like a student sincerely interested in Chomsky’s early life and how he became an activist.

Later in the talk, the word “internet” came up, more and more. Chomsky obviously uses Google products, but only mentioned Google Translate specifically.

He warned about using Artificial Intelligence for more than just data mining. AI should be used for more humanistic endeavors. Understanding ourselves, our species, should be the focus of our prime directive.

I enjoyed it and recommend that you take an hour to listen to a very open discussion: human existence should be our number one priority.

You can watch it by clicking here

or by going to www.youtube.com/watch?v=2C-zWrhFqpM directly.

You can also just search in YouTube.

Solving big problems is easier than solving little problems. – Sergei Brin

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Good Books

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If you are at all interested in anthropology or the lives of your Neanderthal ancestors, this novel will be an enjoyable read.  This reminds me somewhat of the old series called Clan of the Cave Bears, but it is much easier to read (and shorter). The author Claire Cameron acknowledges help from Yuval Harari and Ian Tattersall.

Perhaps this will be the first of a series.  I hope so.  I know I enjoyed it.  Thought provoking.  It is a “fast read” and holds your attention.  But caution is required, this is either adults only or at least older teens.

The book is about two women, separated by 40,000 years.